Will Mutual Aid Lessen the West's Thirst for the Great Lakes?
In August of 2021, the US Bureau of Reclamation announced the first-ever water shortage declaration due to an unprecedented megadrought in the American West. The largest water reservoir in the United States, Lake Mead, had reached its lowest level since the Hoover Dam that fills it was completed in 1936. Mead was holding only 35% of its total water capacity just as Lake Powell, a neighboring reservoir also fed by the Colorado River, had surpassed its previous record low set in 2005. [1] The scenario was not unexpected for the limnologists who had anxiously followed the status of the two artificial lakes since the first major deficit was recorded at the new Millennium. Scientists have since calculated that Lake Mead has lost nearly 5.5 trillion gallons of water since then, which is the equivalent of draining 1,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools every single day for twenty-two years. [1] The combined shortage sounded alarm bells far and wide, placing the 40 million people who depend on the Colorado River Basin for clean drinking water in danger of, quite literally, being hung out to dry.
A recent study featured in the scientific journal, Nature, determined that the drought is the worst in nearly 1,200 years and that climate change is responsible for roughly 42% of its acerbity (2). Research also suggests that there is a 75% chance of the megadrought lasting more than 30 years, a foreboding prediction when assessing how challenging hydrologic recovery will be in the region. [1] Planetary warming will continue to exacerbate droughts everywhere, but the West will likely see many parts of it become uninhabitable for humans and animals alike. Yet, the real estate market continues to boom there, especially in profoundly arid places like Las Vegas, where the population has increased steadily by 1.23% a year since 2010. [2] Some smaller western cities are seeing even greater levels of exponential growth, like Goodyear, Arizona, which has doubled its population since 2019. In fact, economies out west have grown twice as fast as any other region in the US since 1970, and that trend does not look like it will be slowing down anytime soon. So, what happens if the booming West dries up? [2]
The possible futures that may come to pass if the American West lost its ability to have sustainable rainfall would be nothing less than cataclysmic. Sisyphus would likely reach the brow in the underworld before most Americans could adapt themselves to the biological, economic, and agricultural impacts of a rainless Great Central Valley, California, or Phoenix, Arizona. Not to mention the incalculable biodiversity loss, which would amount to nothing less than a mass extinction event, one that would also have grave effects on human beings’ viability. However, experts of varied disciplines, from sociologists to anthropologists, have agreed upon two significant ways that Americans would try to adapt; both of which are currently almost unimaginable to comprehend, and neither of which leave the Great Lakes unscathed.
A recent study featured in the scientific journal, Nature, determined that the drought is the worst in nearly 1,200 years and that climate change is responsible for roughly 42% of its acerbity (2). Research also suggests that there is a 75% chance of the megadrought lasting more than 30 years, a foreboding prediction when assessing how challenging hydrologic recovery will be in the region. [1] Planetary warming will continue to exacerbate droughts everywhere, but the West will likely see many parts of it become uninhabitable for humans and animals alike. Yet, the real estate market continues to boom there, especially in profoundly arid places like Las Vegas, where the population has increased steadily by 1.23% a year since 2010. [2] Some smaller western cities are seeing even greater levels of exponential growth, like Goodyear, Arizona, which has doubled its population since 2019. In fact, economies out west have grown twice as fast as any other region in the US since 1970, and that trend does not look like it will be slowing down anytime soon. So, what happens if the booming West dries up? [2]
The possible futures that may come to pass if the American West lost its ability to have sustainable rainfall would be nothing less than cataclysmic. Sisyphus would likely reach the brow in the underworld before most Americans could adapt themselves to the biological, economic, and agricultural impacts of a rainless Great Central Valley, California, or Phoenix, Arizona. Not to mention the incalculable biodiversity loss, which would amount to nothing less than a mass extinction event, one that would also have grave effects on human beings’ viability. However, experts of varied disciplines, from sociologists to anthropologists, have agreed upon two significant ways that Americans would try to adapt; both of which are currently almost unimaginable to comprehend, and neither of which leave the Great Lakes unscathed.
“The Great Siphoning”
In 2018, as the megadrought had reached its 18th consecutive year, it became clear that the West had to get serious about finding additional sources of freshwater. Households across California, Nevada, and Arizona were placed under frustrating water restrictions, many of which banned all groundskeeping and recreational water usage. As the complaints from the public grew, water managers, city planners, and politicians began advocating for the somewhat antiquated, and hugely controversial, “Great Siphoning.” [3] The idea was anything but simple: find a way to extract the seemingly infinite water supply of Lake Superior, the largest freshwater lake in the US, to the drought-stricken areas of the West.
In 2018, as the megadrought had reached its 18th consecutive year, it became clear that the West had to get serious about finding additional sources of freshwater. Households across California, Nevada, and Arizona were placed under frustrating water restrictions, many of which banned all groundskeeping and recreational water usage. As the complaints from the public grew, water managers, city planners, and politicians began advocating for the somewhat antiquated, and hugely controversial, “Great Siphoning.” [3] The idea was anything but simple: find a way to extract the seemingly infinite water supply of Lake Superior, the largest freshwater lake in the US, to the drought-stricken areas of the West.
The obstacles associated with completing a water pipeline project of this magnitude would be far-reaching. Not only would the pipeline cost hundreds of billions of dollars to construct and operate, but it would also likely take over a decade to become fully operational. This already lengthy timeline excludes the momentous political battle that would materialize over who has a right to the water in the Great Lakes. Political scientists have even theorized that this type of discord has the potential to cause or mimic civil war. For now, the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) and the St. Lawrence-River Basin Water Resources Compact prevent diversion projects from being approved due to the ecological damage they could cause to the Basin. [3] However, these contracts stand on shaky ground, especially in the event of a national emergency; with the stroke of a presidential pen or the cast of a congressional majority vote, these agreements can be dissolved in the name of absolute necessity at any time.
If the project was greenlit due to a water shortage emergency, the fastidious nature of the water cycle may force the pipeline to end up being nothing more than a big leaky faucet anyway. Placing a straw into Lake Superior to help the West seems like a straightforward idea in theory if the water in the Great Lakes was truly inexhaustible. Unfortunately, only around 1% of water in the Great Lakes is renewable through the hydrologic cycle, making the removal of potentially billions more gallons per year incredibly unsustainable. [4] Climate change in the Great Lakes Basin has also made the once predictable rainfall totals anything but, especially in the summer when water is at a premium for agricultural yields in both regions. Precipitation totals have declined by 5% in the summer months in the Basin, and they are projected to decline by up to 20% in the upcoming decades. [5] What is equally troubling is that no water management organization within the Great Lakes has a reasonable assessment of how much water is already being used. The US Geological Survey backed away from attempting to assess how much water is being extracted due to issues with industry cooperation and monitoring regulations. This makes responsibly and accurately planning for any additional water deferments nearly impossible.
While the deck is stacked against them, politicians and corporatists without scientific backgrounds will likely continue to advocate for band-aid solutions versus tackling the overarching problem at hand. That is why many of the same shortsighted actors have also thrown their weight behind desalination plants. [7] While large-scale desalination plants, which use filtration methods to demineralize saltwater into freshwater, are becoming increasingly efficient, they are still colossally expensive and energy-intensive. California’s Claude Lewis Carlsbad’s Desalination Plant, the largest desalination plant in the US, manages to create a staggering, 50 million gallons of freshwater per day. However, it takes around 40 MW (megawatts) per year to successfully do so. [8] To compare, the same amount of energy could power around 20,000 residential homes, and at a much lower operational cost than the $60 million it takes to control the Carlsbad plant annually. [7]
Even a minimally climate-conscious person would agree that this issue cannot be solved by money or technology alone. While the complete restructuring of society and its energy use through revolutionary means does not yet seem obtainable, there are crisis prevention strategies that could be productive almost immediately after their adoption. Some of the most stringent include implementing legislation that curtails real estate markets while circumscribing the amount of permissible industrial growth in the West. [9] Earmarking the development and marketing of homes in areas with severe drought should be seen as predatory and unlawful; if western governments worked to block these projects it could prevent a lot of harm. Local organizations could also create programs that dissuade buyers through informational guides from purchasing in areas with severe climate vulnerabilities. While one can dream of rational solutions, one thing is for certain, the bigger the boom out West, the larger the scale of potential catastrophe. [9]
As of now, in March of 2022, the western water crisis has become even more acute. Lake Powell’s levels are now so low they are risking the failure of hydroelectric power plants in the region. These plants provide power to millions, including hundreds of native villages and rural communities. [11] In the calamity backdrop, the interest in trading water futures has only accelerated since it was first introduced onto the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 2020, signaling the increasing scarcity of the natural resource throughout the US and the world. [10] With the writing on the wall in more ways than one, many westerners will choose the second option of getting out of dodge before things become too dire.
The Great Lakes, the Next Climate Refugee Haven?
For many, migration will be the more rational choice, especially for those who live in places like Yuma or Tucson, Arizona, which already see 144 days per year of temperatures above 90°F. Climate catastrophe-permitting, millions of people could be forced to move in the matter of a few short years, or even months, if things become truly baleful. It should surprise no one that the Midwest is sorely unprepared for such an event. [12] While the future state and dependability of the Great Lakes are already questionable, the infrastructure required to appease such an influx in population is just not there. It would likely take a modern renaissance of sorts in engineering, construction, and funding to provide the necessary amount of distribution plants, storage and treatment facilities, and consumer service lines to supply water to millions of climate refugees. While the Biden Administration’s recent pledge of $1 billion dollars to clean up the Great Lakes is critical for easing current environmental stressors, like plastic and chemical pollutants, it does little to address the looming threat of climate change or climate migration. [13] Without these specific measures, thousands of wildlife conservation projects that will be funded through the infrastructure plan will likely be nullified in the name of quenching the thirst of potentially millions of people.
One thing is clear, the lack of planning for such an event on the federal and state levels is of glaring concern. Currently, the US has no formal proclamation to deal with the resettlement or status of displaced citizens by climate disasters. Those displaced by environmental disasters are not protected or eligible for refugee status under the Refugees Act of 1980, and no agreed-upon framework exists to manage large internal migrations of this kind at all. [14] To add insult to injury, no plan of action has been approved by the Department of Homeland Security or the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) on how to address internal displacement or resettlement caused by climate change or extreme weather events. [14] While investing in infrastructure is key, declarations clarifying protections for climate migrants will be vital to providing disaster assistance and support. Without legally sound guidance, migrants will face more potential situations of violence, imprisonment, or homelessness while relocating. While political theater and red tape will likely bottleneck these decisions from being made anytime soon, it is looking like our friends and neighbors may be the only thing we can truly depend on. [15]
Mutual Aid During Climate Disaster
The buzz-term "mutual aid" has been gracing local and national headlines since the COVID-19 pandemic made millions of Americans poorer and sicker than they have been since the Great Depression. With the Trump Administration’s denial present and culpability absent, people started looking for help from their neighbors instead of once dependable governments, social programs, and institutions. [16] Having access to supportive communities will be the difference between life and death for many people during the climate crisis, especially in the aftermath of natural disasters like Hurricane Ida. In August of 2021, Ida was the second most powerful hurricane to hit Louisiana after Katrina; she displaced over 14,000 people and caused an estimated $95 billion dollars in damages. Of those 14,000, one could bet that most sought reassurance and aid from their family, friends, and neighbors before organizations like the Red Cross or FEMA [17]. Therefore, it can be extrapolated that powerful social movements rooted in principles of communal solidarity and individual preparedness will be the clearest path toward climate resilience. So, what is mutual aid? Dean Spade, renowned trans activist and University of Seattle law professor, defines mutual aid with three characteristics in his book, Mutual Aid: Building Solidarity During This Crisis. [18]
- Mutual aid projects work to meet survival needs and build shared understanding about why people do not have what they need.
- Mutual aid projects mobilize people, expand solidarity, and build movements.
- Mutual aid projects are participatory, solving problems through collective action rather than waiting for saviors.
It is through these forms of collective action that common goals can be formed and a radical movement can be built, even during times as despairing as climate catastrophe. Mutual aid has the potential to revolutionize how society contends with challenges, and if done properly, many aspects of these Dunkirks will seem anything but hopeless. One can even dream of the blossoming of a new society out of the ruins of ecological disaster; many would agree that crazier things have happened before. However, these movements must be built now, and while mutual aid may not prevent the West from drying up, being prepared and supported can certainly make things more manageable. There is no time for despondency or dismay, many things can and must be done; so, love thy neighbor, and walk beside your friends, because they just might be your ticket to surviving the “end of the world.”
References
[1] Williams, A. P., Cook, B. I., & Smerdon, J. E. (2022). Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01290-z
[2] McKellar, K. (2021, May 14). 'it's insane. it's crazy. it's unprecedented': Inside Utah's place in the West's raging housing market. Deseret. Retrieved March 8, 2022, from https://www.deseret.com/2021/5/13/22412416/utahs-place-in-the-west-raging-housing-market-salt-lake-city-rising-housing-prices-record-breaking
[3] Way, R. (2018, May 25). Opinion exchange: The great siphoning: Drought-stricken areas eye the Great Lakes. Star Tribune. Retrieved March 8, 2022, from https://www.startribune.com/the-great-siphoning-drought-stricken-areas-eye-the-great-lakes/483743681/
[4] Wilson, G., & Wilson, A. G. (2021, March 24). Third rail proposal: Selling great lakes water proposed to Lower Lake Levels. Great Lakes Now. Retrieved March 8, 2022, from https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2020/02/selling-water-west-great-lakes-diversions/
[5] Impacts of Climate Change on Great Lakes. Environmental Law & Policy Center. (2021, March 3). https://elpc.org/resources/the-impacts-of-climate-change-on-the-great-lakes/
[6] Pryor, S. C., & Scavia, D. (2014). The Midwest. National Climate Assessment. https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest
[7] Robbins, J. (2019, June 11). As water scarcity increases, desalination plants are on the rise. Yale E360. Retrieved March 15, 2022, from https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-water-scarcity-increases-desalination-plants-are-on-the-rise
[8] Frequently asked questions (faqs) - U.S. energy information administration (EIA). Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (n.d.). Retrieved March 15, 2022, from https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=107&t=3
[9] Warren-Myers, G., & Hurlimann, A. (2021). Climate change and risk to real estate.
[10] CME Group. (2020, September 17). CME Group to launch first-ever water futures based on Nasdaq Veles California water index - CME group. Futures & Options Trading for Risk Management - CME Group. Retrieved March 8, 2022, from https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2020/9/17/cme_group_to_launchfirst-everwaterfuturesbasedonnasdaqvelescalif.html
[11] Water-Data.com. (2022, March 24). Lake powell water database. Lake Powell Water Database. Retrieved March 25, 2022, from https://lakepowell.water-data.com/
[12] Garfin, G., & Franco, G. (2017). (rep.). Fourth National Climate Assessment. US Global Change Research Program. Retrieved March 8, 2022, from https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southwest
[13] Mason, J., & Renshaw, J. (2022, February 17). Biden promotes $1 bln Great Lakes cleanup push in a visit to Ohio. Reuters. Retrieved March 8, 2022, from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-promote-great-lakes-clean-up-efforts-ohio-trip-2022-02-17/
[14] Selby, J., & Hoffmann, C. (2012). Water Scarcity, Conflict, and Migration: A Comparative Analysis and Reappraisal. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 30(6), 997–1014. https://doi.org/10.1068/c11335j
[15] Yayboke, E., & Staghun, J. (2021, May 6). A New Framework for U.S. Leadership on Climate Migration. A New Framework for U.S. Leadership on Climate Migration | Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-framework-us-leadership-climate-migration
[16] Contributor, A. (2020, September 17). Climate change, mutual aid, and state failure in the Pacific Northwest. It's Going Down. Retrieved March 8, 2022, from https://itsgoingdown.org/climate-change-mutual-aid-and-state-failure-in-the-pacific-northwest/
[17] US Department of Commerce, N.O.A.A. (2021, September 29). NWS Lix - Hurricane Ida Event Page. National Weather Service. Retrieved March 25, 2022, from https://www.weather.gov/lix/hurricaneida2021
[18] Spade, D. (2020). Mutual aid: Building Solidarity during this crisis (and the next). Verso.
Emily Kincanon is currently a Project Dragonfly graduate student at Miami University. She is a former alternative education teacher looking to step outside of the classroom to help people effectively prepare for climate change.
